Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale.

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Joint species distribution models with species correlations and imperfect detection.

Spatiotemporal patterns in biological communities are typically driven by environmental factors and species interactions. Spatial data from communities are naturally described by stacking models for all species in the community. Two important considerations in such multispecies or joint species distribution models (JSDMs) are measurement errors and correlations between species. Up to now, virtually all JSDMs have included either one or the other, but not both features simultaneously, even though both measurement errors and species correlations may be essential for achieving unbiased inferences about the distribution of communities and species co-occurrence patterns. We developed two presence-absence JSDMs for modeling pairwise species correlations while accommodating imperfect detection: one using a latent variable and the other using a multivariate probit approach. We conducted three simulation studies to assess the performance of our new models and to compare them to earlier latent variable JSDMs that did not consider imperfect detection. We illustrate our models with a large Atlas data set of 62 passerine bird species in Switzerland. Under a wide range of conditions, our new latent variable JSDM with imperfect detection and species correlations yielded estimates with little or no bias for occupancy, occupancy regression coefficients, and the species correlation matrix. In contrast, with the multivariate probit model we saw convergence issues with large data sets (many species and sites) resulting in very long run times and larger errors. A latent variable model that ignores imperfect detection produced correlation estimates that were consistently negatively biased, that is, underestimated. We found that the number of latent variables required to represent the species correlation matrix adequately may be much greater than previously suggested, namely around n/2, where n is community size. The analysis of the Swiss passerine data set exemplifies how not accounting for imperfect detection will lead to negative bias in occupancy estimates and to attenuation in the estimated covariate coefficients in a JSDM. Furthermore, spatial heterogeneity in detection may cause spurious patterns in the estimated species correlation matrix if not accounted for. Our new JSDMs represent an important extension of current approaches to community modeling to the common case where species presence-absence cannot be detected with certainty.